Cumulative Effects Assessment of Four Barren-Ground Caribou Herds in the NWT

SUMMARY

The Cumulative Effects Assessment of Barren-Ground Caribou Herds in the NWT has collaboratively developed decision-support tools with Renewable Resource Boards (RRBs), the Wildlife Management Advisory Council (WMAC [NWT]), the Bathurst Caribou Advisory Committee (BCAC), and the Department of Environment and Climate Change of the Government of the Northwest Territories (GNWT-ECC). These tools examine cumulative effects of landscape changes (e.g., climate and wildfire), project development (e.g., all-season roads), and management practices (e.g., harvest levels) on the habitat quality and population dynamics of the Cape Bathurst, Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula, Bluenose-West, Bluenose-East, and Bathurst herds of barren-ground caribou in the Northwest Territories (NWT) and Kitikmeot region of Nunavut.

The objectives of the project were to:

1) Develop collaborative decision-support tools with RRBs, WMAC (NWT), and BCAC that meaningfully braids computer simulation models from western science with the knowledge and expertise on barren-ground caribou from Indigenous people across the NWT and Kitikmeot region of Nunavut;

2) Explore population level responses of barren-ground caribou herds to multiple factors, such as habitat (i.e., climate change, wildfire, and land-use), mortality (i.e., predation and harvest), and productivity;

3) Develop comprehensive summaries of publicly available Indigenous knowledge of the Cape Bathurst, Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula, Bluenose-West, Bluenose-East, and Bathurst herds of barren-ground caribou to guide the cumulative effects assessment and provide a background resource for communities, researchers, and decision-makers;

4) Create a Steering Committee composed of technical staff and community members from RRBs, WMAC (NWT), BCAC, and GNWT-ECC to provide direction to the cumulative effects analysts; and

5) Built capacity through a team of cumulative effects analysts composed of technical staff from RRBs, WMAC (NWT), BCAC, and GNWT-ECC to explore and simulate additional cumulative impact scenarios as directed by the Steering Committee.

Northern decision-makers can use these tools to address specific resource-management decisions as it:

o Provides a basis for integrated assessment of effects of land use, management practices, environmental changes, and climate change on barren-ground caribou herd dynamics and their habitat;

o Assesses and evaluates differing management approaches (i.e., levels of cumulative disturbance and harvest levels) under differing environmental and climate change scenarios; and

o Provides a better understanding of future potential cumulative effects on caribou and supports the RRBs and WMAC (NWT)’s role as the main instrument of wildlife co-management in their regions.

PROJECT PARTNERS

A Steering Committee was established in April 2024 and includes members from the following organizations:

• Wildlife Management Advisory Council (NWT)

• Gwich’in Renewable Resources Board

• Sahtú Renewable Resources Board

• Wek’èezhìı Renewable Resources Board

• Tłı̨chǫ Government

• Yellowknives Dene First Nation

• North Slave Métis Alliance

• Łutsel Kʼe Dene First Nation

• Deninu Kųę́ First Nation

• Northwest Territories Métis Nation

• Fort Resolution Métis Government

• Fort Smith Métis Council

• Athabasca Denesųłiné Néné Land Corporation

• Kugluktuk Angoniatit Association

• Kitikmeot Regional Wildlife Board

• Government of the Northwest Territories

• Government of Nunavut

• Parks Canada

Project funding include:

The project was funded by the NWT Cumulative Impacts Monitoring Program (CIMP), Aboriginal Funding for Species at Risk (ASFAR), Parks Canada, and GNWT-ECC. We are also grateful for the in-kind contributions provided by all project partners throughout the project.

APPROACH

The cumulative effects of land use, natural disturbance, harvest, and climate on barren-ground caribou were examined using the Collaborative Barren-ground Caribou (CBGC) ALCES (https://cbgc.alces-flow.com/public/web/docs/), a web-based decision support tool for land-use planning and wildlife management that links landscape change to caribou population.

The project focused on to the annual ranges of the Cape Bathurst, Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula, Bluenose-West, Bluenose-East, and Bathurst herds of barren-ground caribou. However, landscape simulations covered a broader geographic area, which included the entire NWT and the Kitikmeot region of Nunavut.

Decision Support Tools

Landscape Change Model

The landscape change model simulated current (2010-2020) and future (2020-2060) vegetation changes by forecasting changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), wildfires (i.e., annual burn area), shrubification (i.e., expansion of forests in the tundra), and human land-use.

Population Dynamics Model

The population dynamics model used seasonal models for each herd to simulate how barren-ground caribou populations may respond to changes in landscape composition, land-use, and harvest. Specifically, the following inputs/indicators were derived to parameterize the population dynamics models: initial population size, seasonal ranges, seasonal habitat models, fecundity rates and mortality rates, effect of climate on vital rates, and harvest rates. These inputs were applied in combination with the landscape change model to simulate seasonal population dynamics for each herd.

Indigenous Knowledge Summaries

Summaries of publicly-available Indigenous knowledge (i.e., Inuvialuit, Gwich’in, Sahtú Dene, Métis, and Tłı̨chǫ) of the Cape Bathurst, Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula, Bluenose-West, Bluenose-East, and Bathurst herds of barren ground caribou. We did not collect new traditional knowledge in this project, rather we conducted a limited literature review to summarize Indigenous perspectives and observations on the trends and factors affecting caribou populations, habitat, and health from recent, publicly available, written sources. Information from these sources was categorized into seven categories of human and natural factors.

RESOURCES

NWT CIMP Final Report

NWT CIMP NERB

CBGC ALCES User Guide/Technical Report

Barren Ground Caribou CEA Land Use Scenarios 2022-2072

Indigenous Knowledge of TP, CB, BNW, BNE, and BAT Herds

Table of Indigenous Knowledge

Contacts

If you have any questions on the project or CBGC ALCES, please do not hesitate to reach out to us!

Mélanie Routh, Principal Investigator, Environment and Climate Change, Government of the Northwest Territories – Melanie_Routh@gov.nt.ca

Matt Carlson, Landscape Ecologist, Integral Ecology Group – mcarlson@iegconsulting.com